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We are assured by media savants, never short of a clich\u233\'8e, that we live in \lquote a brave new world\rquote , that \lquote the mould of British politics has been broken\rquote , that these are \rquote historic times\rquote . \par Well, if the spectacle of Vince Cable advocating the privatization of the Post Office is brave, they may be right \endash I have a rather less complimentary clich\u233\'8e to offer: political suicide. \par If the abandonment by the Liberals of their principled positions on student fees and on immigration is historic, I would have to agree \endash but only in the sense that the anti-trade union laws introduced by Thatcher in the eighties were historic. \par And if I were Nick Clegg I would not invest too much hope in a possible Tory referendum on changes to the voting system. There\rquote s a deal more breaking of the mould still to be achieved than will be de livered by the gerrymandering of parliament to prevent its dissolution short of a full five years. \par And if the near-certainty of a second recession caused by atavistic Tory policies on taxation (warmly endorsed by their Liberal partners in crime) is evidence of a brave new world, perhaps we should pay heed to the author of the eponymous novel: \lquote These \u8230\'c9 are unpleasant facts; I know it. But then most historical facts are unpleasant.\rquote (Huxley, }{\i\fs28 Brave New World}{\fs28 ) \par There are, nonetheless, glimmers of hope. David Wil letts has offered a rethink on the notorious impact aspect of the REF, something on which Âé¶¹¹ÙÍø mounted a massively influential campaign. We welcome this fulfillment of his pre-election promise. There is a promise of \u163\'a3 150m funding for 50,000 additional apprenticeships \endash though how the money will be applied and where it will come from remains obscure: there is a fear that it will not be a new resource, but simply the recycling of cuts elsewhere. \par Despite these glimmers, the overall picture is less than heroic: an immediate addition of \u163\'a3200m to the \u163\'a3 1bn already cut, or about to be cut, from HE, and no reprieve for FE Colleges hit over and over again by governments seeing them as the poor relation. I fear that will only get worse, as we face a Tory-dominated coali tion addressing its middle-class voters who barely takes Universities outside the Russell Group seriously, and for whom FE colleges scarcely register on the radar. \par For the first implication of the recession, job losses, and cuts to post-school education will be something I got publicity \endash and some stick \endash for saying at TUC congress last year: There is a real fear of a lost generation of young people in this country. The number of those not in Education, Employment or Training is near enough a million. They represent a grotesque scandal of unfulfilled potential. Sometimes referred to in Government and Media circles as NEETS, I prefer to offer the acronym UPs (unfulfilled potential). \par Add to that the disturbing fact that in a year when there will only be 10,000 new university places \endash that\rquote s one we }{\i\fs28 don\rquote t}{\fs28 thank you for, Mr Willetts \endash and only funded for one year at that, there is so far an increase of 23% in applications to university. Last year 158,000 failed to find places. If the final increase in applications remains at that level, there is the likelihood of around 285,000 applicants lost to the system. Given that the FE sector, thanks to years of cuts and mismanagement, is ill-placed to take the resultant strain, I fear that we could be looking at 1.25 milli on young people lost, on the dole, and facing a bleak future. \par That is for sure a lost generation. It is a shame on the record of past and present governments, and a damning indictment of the values of British society. In that context, threats to take the ca p off fees, and cuts in corporation tax at a time when they are already amongst the lowest in the OECD countries, are nothing less than an utter disgrace. Âé¶¹¹ÙÍø has made its position clear on this, and will continue to do so, not least through motions which I am sure will be passed with acclaim at this Congress. \par \par We, as a union, are of course also a kind of coalition, though we use the term merger to describe what we have created out of the former AUT and NATFHE. There are analogies with the political situation, but also significant differences. \par There are different reasons for mergers of trades unions. They might be based on the absorption of an unviably small union into a much larger one. They might result from a financial crisis facing one or more unions of similar sizes. They might for part of a process of empire-building. Or, rarely, they might represent the logical coming together of unions with a similar purpose in order to represent their employment sector more effectively. \par In his 2008 study, }{\i\fs28 Trade Union Merger Strategies}{\fs28 (OUP) Roger Undy describes and analyses a series of mergers of the first three types, and his account is on the whole bleak. Small unions lose their identity in larger coalitions where the sheer size of the resulting entity mitigates aga inst effective targeted action. Where finance is the driver, the merged body can face years of membership decline, cash problems, and a struggle to recover its influence in the workplace. Empire building, needless to say, is likely to do little for member s and to skew the purposes of the union significantly towards inward-looking politics. \par Undy did not discuss the fourth type - the coming together of unions with a similar purpose in order to represent their employment sector more effectively. As the first president to have gone through the full cycle \endash I was on the transition executive, and have seen the merging process at first hand since then \endash it is my conviction that, in the main, Âé¶¹¹ÙÍø stands as a counter-example to Undy\rquote s somewhat bleak analysis. We have increased our membership. We have successfully challenged attempts by managements in both sectors to impose work conditions and redundancies. We have taken important initiatives at the professional level \endash on workloads, on bullying and harassment, on equa lity, and on dealing with redundancy, to mention only a few. Our lobbying of MPs and our manifesto for education, together with regular and effective media exposure, mean that we are well placed to continue the struggle to ensure that educational values a nd the dignity of the profession are kept in the forefront of political debate. \par But there are warning signs too: our membership may be growing, but we still fall short of the kind of strength in both numbers and finance that we need to maximize our impact. There remain divisions within the union \endash not surprising, given the diverse character of the two component unions \endash and these will have to be minimized if we are to build on our initial success. Executive must give a lead \endash yes! \endash but must also take care n ot to be too far removed from the concerns and interests of the bulk of our members. Effective demonstrations need enthusiastic grass roots support and clear and urgent cause. Was it Germaine Greer who said that unless you can get a million people to turn out there is no point in marching?! That may be an overstatement; but when you recall that hundreds of thousands of demonstrators \endash including no doubt many of us here today \endash failed to stop the invasion of Iraq, the limitations of such events in influencin g policy are clear. On the other hand, there is no doubt that we need to find ways of urging upon our members the importance of reading the runes, of being alert to the signs of trouble brewing, and of taking appropriate action. A string of strikes or thr eats of strikes at Leeds, Manchester College, Northumberland College, Sussex, Glasgow and so on \endash the list is sadly too extensive to recite in full \endash shows that we are more often than not ready, prepared and effective. \par No doubt there is much still to do; nevertheless I am confident, as I retire from both work and, before long, from union activity, that the fight will go on and can be safely entrusted to a new generation of activists. \par \par In conclusion \endash we have much to be grateful for. Our coalition is robust, and I believe likely to succeed. Whether that other, less respectable coalition will survive for long remains to be seen; but for those who still imagine that politicians and their promises are to be trusted, let me end with a story which has been doing the rounds on the internet recently \endash with apologies to those of you who will inevitably have heard it already. \par }\pard \sa60\sl360\slmult1\widctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 {\fs28 An MP, tragically killed in a hit-and-run accident, arrived in heaven and was met by St . Peter. 'Welcome to heaven,' said Peter. 'But before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. It is many aeons since an MP last appeared in heaven, and so we have to decide how best to place you. It seems that the Boss wants to give you a choice: so w hat we want you to do is to spend one day in hell, then one in heaven, and decide your eternal destination on the basis of your experience.\rquote \par So Peter escorted him to the elevator which took him down to hell. When the doors opened he found himself in the mid dle of a green golf course. In the distance a clubhouse and standing in front of it all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him. They ran to greet him, shake his hand, and reminisce about the good times they had had while getting rich at the expense of the people. They played a friendly game of golf and then dined on lobster, caviar and champagne. Also present was the devil, who turned out to be friendly, witty and sophisticated. They were having such a good time that before he realized i t, it was time to go. Back at the gates St. Peter was waiting for him. 'Now it's time to visit heaven.' \par The next day passed in the company of a group of contented souls drifting from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They had a pleasant, if understated day together, and before he realized it, the 24 hours had passed and Peter was back. \par 'Well, then, you've spent a day in hell and another in heaven. Now choose your eternal destination \par The MP reflected for a minute, then answered: 'I\rquote d never have said it before but, while heaven has been delightful, I think I would be better off in hell.' \par So St. Peter escorted him to the elevator which took him directly down to hell. But as the doors opened he found himself in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage. His friends, dressed in rags, were picking up the trash and putting it in black bags as more trash fell from above. The devil came over to him and put his arm around his shoulder. \par 'I don't understand,' stammered the MP. 'Yesterday I wa s here and there was a golf course and clubhouse, and we ate lobster and caviar, drank champagne, and had a great time. Now there's just a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable. What happened?' \par The devil looked at him, smiled and said, 'Yesterday we were campaigning \endash today you voted.' \par }\pard \sa200\sl360\slmult1\widctlpar\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 {\fs28 \par May all our votes at Congress be at least as well informed! \par }}